Property · Union Post UK
(Patrick Sison / Associated Press) By Haslinda Amin and Sangmi Cha Nov. 11, 2026 8:05 AM PT Anthropic PBC’s blockbuster initial public offering may become the catalyst for major reversal in the artificial intelligence trade, according to Jack Selby, who runs the venture capital firm Copper Sky. The Claude chatbot maker is seeking to raise as much as $100 billion in a combination of the IPO, a private placement and a potential overallotment option. While early signs indicate robust demand for the historic offering, with reports about a potential increase in size, Selby is skeptical.
“An underperforming Anthropic IPO has to be a very prominent player in what will be a pretty massive correction in the market with respect to AI,” Selby, who is also a managing partner at Peter Thiel’s family office, said in an interview with Bloomberg Television on Wednesday. “If the most anticipated AI company’s IPO falls very short of its projected valuation, and just imagine where it’s going to go after the lockups expire.” Selby is a longtime skeptic of the AI trade. More than a year ago, he called the euphoria surrounding the industry the biggest bubble yet in private technology investing.
He again challenged the idea that demand for AI is infinite, noting that DeepSeek and other Chinese models are roughly six months behind, presenting another threat to Anthropic. “If they’re six months or nine months behind what Anthropic does, what does Anthropic do that is so proprietary that it is better or has to be a national security interest versus these Chinese models?” he said. As to whether he’d bet on AI in Asia, Selby said he’d be “massively long Chinese AI” if he could.
Anthropic can’t claim all its business requires an American model, he said, because most current usage is utility-like, leaving room for arbitrage. He warned that the Anthropic lockup expirations could particularly pressure shares. SoftBank Group Corp. and Oracle Corp. are canaries in the coal mine, he said, with Oracle more exposed given its high debt ratio.
For investors who must own AI, he suggested Alphabet Inc.’s Google. “Why is Anthropic so anxious to go public?,” Shelby said. “They have so much cash on their balance sheet.
They have almost as much cash on their balance sheet as Google. They make more money from interest income than they do from their core business model.” Anthropic’s revenue structure, with more than 80% of it non-recurring and susceptible to rivals’ improvements, is one reason to be skeptical, Selby said. A competitor closing a lead of just six or nine months would be a major concern, he said, adding that capex is significant, as data, energy, data centers and chips are all expensive inputs and interest rates are no longer near zero.
“It’s so capex-intensive,” Selby said. “It’s a real business, but the business is stll in its early innings and the idea that it is a trillion-dollar business seems exceptionally far-fetched.” Amin and Cha write for Bloomberg. More to Read More From the Los Angeles Times Most Read in Business
Source: Los Angeles Times
